Brexit…when a Widely Anticipated Event ever Surprised Markets?

brexit

Brexit… when a widely anticipated event ever surprised markets? Continue reading “Brexit…when a Widely Anticipated Event ever Surprised Markets?”

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Where Commodities Disagree With Bonds?

Norwegian yield curve

Here is what I can’t figure out: why are Yield Curves of countries with substantial dependence on crude oil production are still Inverted?  Continue reading “Where Commodities Disagree With Bonds?”

Where Commodities Disagree With Bonds?

Boost Your Investment Performance With Timing?

Traffic Light

During periods of low returns, eking out small advantages is critical.  Agreed? Continue reading “Boost Your Investment Performance With Timing?”

Boost Your Investment Performance With Timing?

Summer Shopping in Europe? Buy Some Stocks There Too!

Shopping

I am not talking about that Europe would outgrow the World. No. Continue reading “Summer Shopping in Europe? Buy Some Stocks There Too!”

Summer Shopping in Europe? Buy Some Stocks There Too!

Why in Investing There are Old Traders and There Are Bold Traders, But There Are Very Few Old, Bold Traders

Up or down3

We all have been there, the stock is down 30% last few months and it is down 4% on another piece of bad news today. Tempting to buy it?  My strong suggestion is that you should not. While it seems intellectually elegant to buy dips, in general, odds are heavily stacked against you. Continue reading “Why in Investing There are Old Traders and There Are Bold Traders, But There Are Very Few Old, Bold Traders”

Why in Investing There are Old Traders and There Are Bold Traders, But There Are Very Few Old, Bold Traders

Global Financial Markets Entering Risk-Off Regime

Risk ON regime

Our global Macro Monitor system is flashing many Red Flags (and we emailed first warnings a few days ago to our clients).  Continue reading “Global Financial Markets Entering Risk-Off Regime”

Global Financial Markets Entering Risk-Off Regime

Why Yield Curves Excel at Seeing the Future and Central Banks Don’t

Yield curves2

Why is the shape of a Yield Curve a solid predictor of a recession (or a recovery)?

I actually have never heard a coherent explanation why a flat or inverted Yield Curves signal recession so well. Typically 99% of answers to that question would center around what a Central Bank of a country would do and what investors think about its possible moves.  It has some validity but the argument is incomplete. Continue reading “Why Yield Curves Excel at Seeing the Future and Central Banks Don’t”

Why Yield Curves Excel at Seeing the Future and Central Banks Don’t