– yes, the stock is down 50+% YTD way worse than the rest of the market – yes, Facebook’s lunch is being eaten away by Tik-Tok – yes, the stock is down to the 12x P/E multiple (but if earnings keep eroding fast, we most certainly are facing a 100x P/E!)
However, should we really blame Mark Zuckerberg and his executive team for all these issues? Facebook became a huge, enormously profitable company mostly because Zuckerberg (no matter how intelligent he is) was JUST EXTRAORDINARY lucky with the timing of his idea. Zuckerberg was neither the first, nor the best – he was simply extraordinarily fortunate with his timing to have this idea at the Harvard dorm. When other endless, hungrier imitators finally found a way to outcompete him – he had nothing ready to replace. He achieved his enormous success with, frankly, little personal sacrifice or struggles – the market was SO ready for that social platform. Compare this to Bezos or Musk or the late Steve Jobs who spent decades building their companies (usually 2-4 in parallel!),often waiting for 15 years to turn them profitable! These esteemed serial entrepreneurs faced tremendous business challenges and endured immeasurable personal sacrifices along the way.
Blood, sweat and tears! And, don’t forget that Technology companies are supposed to have a short life cycle – What is easy to build is easy to disrupt!
1. Your investment process is flawed and is nothing but a momentum strategy – i.e. you failed to anticipate a fundamentally predictable reversal in earnings (i.e. Technology sector earnings predictably shrinking after the Covid overconsumption)
2. Your investment process is Macro blind – you failed to see rotations into Sectors or countries with better fundamentals and cheaper valuations – Energy or Brazil or Turkey
3. Your investment mandate is overly tight and doesn’t allow you to drift outside of the style and sectors.
While the third one is unchangeable, the first two are structural but fixable deficiencies. Please don’t tell me about tough markets, the Fed, the Inflation, or the war in Ukraine, etc. – there are plenty of countries and sectors being up YTD (Energy, Brazil, Turkey, etc.). Have you captured any of these rotations?
looks lame and self-serving: blaming the Fed for being too focused on Inflation and employment (their mandate !) is insane. Obviously, Kathy Wood is talking up her book – she desperately needs lower rates to improve the performance of her struggling Ark Fund, Her Ark fund is down 62% YTD! One of the worst performing funds globally.
Kathy why wouldn’t you show some humility and acknowledge that buying a growth company doesn’t imply buying a stock that would advance.
The UK governments is effectively insolvent (over-indebted, overspending): 1) decades of budget deficits 2) ever rising government debt 3) practically irreversible – ageing demographics invariably causes Deficits and Debt
Look how UK 30Y Yields are heading ever higher, signaling almost an inevitable crisis? We are just entering a painful global recession…
On the way up – it is relevant as it is relatively hard to handicap when growth would normalize. On the way down – valuation is even more dangerous, as most Technology stocks are one-trick poneys – when their product becomes obsolete, almost no valuation helps as earnings quickly erode. So, FaceBook (Meta) might be the case in point now.
Nobody at banks has any idea about interest rates sensitivity of their deposits and people naively assume that higher rates are uniformly good for banks. Not in the inverted yield curve when rates are heading higher!
One of the advantages of the European single currency was that it at least partially ensured mutual fiscal oversight! While the oversight was loosely encouraged and never really enforced, other G7 countries (the US, Canada, the UK and Japan) never had any sense of fiscal discipline!
Now, the fiscal turmoil in the UK should give a wake-up call to all beforementioned governments. Fiscal austerity for these Anglo-Saxon countries is almost inevitably coming.
“the revenge travel” – post Covid itch to hit the road recently manifested itself in German car rental companies pushing rates on rentals way higher, denying the pessimism that the skinflint Germans would not pay up for experience.
When a cold dark winter prompted by a lack of Russian-supplied natgas, would hit Germany, I could totally see Germans spending a couple of winter months in warm Southern countries?
Spending a chunk of this winter in South Asia, Oz or Latin America would sound appealing!