Global Financial Markets Entering Risk-Off Regime

Risk ON regime

Our global Macro Monitor system is flashing many Red Flags (and we emailed first warnings a few days ago to our clients). Our system (PETREL) spots about 60 Red Indicators today.

  • almost all European and Emerging Markets Equity markets are turning down
  • in the US equities are getting more nervous after 6-8 weeks of Risk -On.
  • Specifically, VIX is in the early stages of turning up
  • Many Yield Curves are flattening our further:  the US, the UK, Japan, Mexico, France, Austria, etc.
  • Japan looks – Yen is making 1.5 year high, Nikkei is down 2.5%.  Japanese Small Capitalization Equities are in the world of hurt for several days already
  • German Bund Yields drop further
  • The Yield curves of Brazil, Turkey, Russia, Norway, Taiwan, South Korea became even more inverted
  • Cyclically sensitive Equity Sectors: Transportation, Shipping, and Copper Miners are turning down
  • many safety havens (US Treasuries, Mortgages) are strengthening

We think we are re-entering the Risk-Off period and we recommend caution.
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Global Financial Markets Entering Risk-Off Regime

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