The politically driven decision to release 1M barrels of crude oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was viewed as a temporary bandaid applied to an arm at the expense of a bleeding leg:
1) the logistical cap on SPR draws is ~0.5M BPD, which is essentially in line with the 3-4MM bbls per week that are ALREADY being drawn from the US SPR. I.e. the SPR daily release can’t get notably larger than the current outflow 2) even if a 1MM BPD release was feasible, a release of ...
We are heading into the recession not because the Fed will slam the brakes so abruptly
But, because they have so irresponsibly overstimulated the economy in 2019-2020. Rockets rarely land safely… ...
This profoundly disturbing war in Ukraine produced many economic surprises:
Palladium spot price now trades below the Feb 24th level. While 45% of global palladium is supplied by Russia. The only reasonable (and, hopefully, ridiculous) explanation of that is that the recession would be so bad, that nobody would need cars catalytic converters… ...
Barclays taking a $0.5B charge on messing upsizing the Risk in Bonds?
I.e. since bonds have not experienced such volatility – they have not budgeted for such moves…Why did that happen? Because risk managers follow tightly parametrized playbooks based on the recent past. However, surprisingly, the future is ALWAYS different from the past (amazing, right?!)What is the solution? Adding a predictive component to Risk Management that would ...
ADBE
Beyond the human tragedy of this disturbing war in Ukraine, the direct financial casualty, are consistent with the previous trends: Adobe (ADBE) is down 7% on cutting growth due to business cuts in Russia-Belarus Russia-Belarus is 2-3% of the global GDP but remembers that for a recession to start 2% drop in GDP would be ...