The price of Aluminum

The price of Aluminum is making all-time highs. See the 10-year chart of aluminum. There is growing evidence that the global inventories of Aluminum are running low and lower Obviously, smelting of aluminum requires a lot of energy which in turn is getting increasingly expensive ...

Brent Oil curve that is getting increasingly backward…

If you believe, as classical textbooks do, that the commodities futures curves backwardation is a bullish indicator, then Brent Oil has a lot higher to go: look at this Brent Oil curve that is getting increasingly backward ...

Negatives of lower crude oil prices.

Cheaper oil slows down the development of Alternative energy sources Americans would splurge more on gas stations impulse junk: “Twinkies anyone? It increases the US dependency on foreign supplies of crude oil because to remain economical US shale-sourced supplies need a reasonable price of crude oil It encourages unnecessary driving and eliminates the need for ...

Facebook (Meta-what?) is losing market share to TikTok, Snap, Telegram, etc.

Yes, it is possible to make the case that: the Facebook (Meta-what?) is at the early stages of the structural decline We all know that they are losing market share to TikTok, Snap, Telegram, etc. Then why wouldn’t its stock find its bottom at 16x P/E? Well, cause their margins are so damn high! Their ...

The trend in Big Technology

Last 2 months the trend in Big Technology is loud and clear:expensive stocks have sold off while Value Tech (like IBM, Hewlett Packard) has produced 10%+ returnsAnd, why not?Historically, returns were mostly the function of the price paid.See the proprietary chart of stock moves on the vertical scale vs. the EV/Sales on the horizontal axis. ...

The high-growth new economy vs. the old economy

I am befuddled when the supporters of the dovish Fed say: that normalizing Rates and QE would do nothing to fix the supply chains issues. Yes, in the short term, supply chains are rather rigid They are! But in the long run, they have profoundly suffered from capital misallocation. But with its emergency-like zero rates ...