Amazon’s surprisingly big miss confirms again that most investors can’t see a change in trend:

Ø Amazon now promises 7% top-line growth, seriously? on a 40x P/EØ What is Amazon: a modern-day, Internet-enabled catalog delivery! – like Sears was 130 years ago.·   Sears opened mail ordering catalog deliveries in 1892·   Before the Sears catalog, farmers near small rural towns usually purchased supplies, often at high prices and on credit, from local general ...

When investors talk nowadays, that it is a time for “stock picking to invest in quality stocks with pricing power”, – I take it as a beautiful lie!

As always, being right on major allocations: Sectors, Styles or Countries would dictate 80-90% of returns. Especially this year! Don’t forget that 95% of Tech stocks (and many of them are Quality!) are down YTD, and 90% of Energy stocks are up YTD (and, many of them are struggling companies). Also, in reality, the notion ...

Are big tech earnings really that critical this season?

Everyone would be glued to the new screens this evening, hoping that Apple or Amazon will tell us about the future of the world! Seriously, do you think that these CEOs have any idea about: when would inflation or oil peak? when would China end its excessive Covid lockdowns? or when this war in Ukraine ...

Update on the planting season in Ukraine

crucially important for the global food security from our contacts on the ground there: amazingly, Ukrainian farmers would still be able to plant ~68% of pre-war fields (wheat, corn, sunflower) For the planting season of 2022, access to about 30% of the field areas is not available due to combat. Bottlenecks: Logistics: historically, most of ...

Why is it even a surprise that Netflix started losing subscribers?

Very much like Peloton has pulled demand forward, during the Covid lockdowns, and then that stay-at-home excess profits have attracted all kinds of competitors. Now Peloton faces declining demand AND higher competition. Netflix is suffering from the exact same effect. BTW our Tools told clients to avoid/short NFLX since its stock was $500. ...

There are many compelling reasons to broadly avoid Technology stocks for the next few years.

Yes, they are over-earning, over-valued, over-owned, over-liked, etc.Yet, all long-term investors know that the leaders of the previous cycle never lead the new cycle.The technology worked 2010-2021, and, that party is over ...