This profoundly disturbing war in Ukraine produced many economic surprises:

Palladium spot price now trades below the Feb 24th level. While 45% of global palladium is supplied by Russia. The only reasonable (and, hopefully, ridiculous) explanation of that is that the recession would be so bad, that nobody would need cars catalytic converters… ...

Barclays taking a $0.5B charge on messing upsizing the Risk in Bonds?

I.e. since bonds have not experienced such volatility – they have not budgeted for such moves…Why did that happen? Because risk managers follow tightly parametrized playbooks based on the recent past. However, surprisingly, the future is ALWAYS different from the past (amazing, right?!)What is the solution? Adding a predictive component to Risk Management that would ...

ADBE

Beyond the human tragedy of this disturbing war in Ukraine, the direct financial casualty, are consistent with the previous trends: Adobe (ADBE) is down 7% on cutting growth due to business cuts in Russia-Belarus Russia-Belarus is 2-3% of the global GDP but remembers that for a recession to start 2% drop in GDP would be ...

How far can crude oil prices go this cycle?

Let’s start building these floors: 1. the last cycle of 2008 peaked at $150, which adjusted for inflation bringing us to $200/barrel now. 2. admittedly, because the world uses more renewables than in 2008, it would take HIGHER oil to destroy demand. I.e. the US consumer is far more protected from the oil shock than ...

What can our dogmatic Fed Chairman do now?

1. raise rates 50bps a few times in a row (ideally, every month not just every meeting)2. raise rates 75bps next meeting3. immediately reverse the madness of bonds purchases4. apologize to consumers and Congress for their inability to forecast the future5. Replace Jay Powell with Jim Bullard 6. ALL OF THE ABOVE ...