What does it tell us that: Amazon seeks to Sublease, or even bail out of its warehouse leases as online sales cool?

This is a big deal. It is one thing when a young Peloton (having grossly miscalculated the size of the market) is shutting down its plants, but it is a whole different story when the mighty Amazon (that employs tons of Data Scientists and even economists to forecast) fails to do that. 1) Is the ...

Investors assume that the recession in Europe would be far worse than in the US because Europe would need to overhaul its commodities purchases.

Deliberately showcasing the contrarian stance, we think that the recession in the US would be just as bad, if not worse than in Europe, because:1. The US has benefited from this insane, unreasonable fiscal and monetary stimulus. Now, we are facing massive payback on that demand pull-forward.  2. The superstrong US Dollar makes European exports more competitive vs. the ...

On a very high level, the two largest US retailers – Walmart and Amazon are talking about the consumer slowdown:

1. cut the top-line growth forecast 2. will reduce staffing levels (layoffs) 3. talking about other costs and supply chain eating into their margins (lower profitability) If this is not a front-row view of broadening consumer slow-down, then what is?  ...

Target (one of the US largest retailers) is down 26% today (ouch)…

Yes, the company wasn’t prepared either for cost inflation that hurt their profitability. Curiously enough, neither were the investors, after all – they expected Target to sail well through this inflation! However, such drops are predictable and statistically inevitable. Why? Look at this eye-opening chart of Target profitability (their operating margins) – being at the ...

Target (one of the US largest retailers) CEO sees a reopening shift in consumer behavior still unfolding:

1) sales of TVs (stay at home) are down big 2) luggage sales (travel items) are up 50% Curiously enough, the CEO wasn’t prepared either for this transition or cost inflation which hurt their profitability. ...

Today was an important day in the markets, potentially foretelling a likely near-term stabilization:

1) interest rates (yields) dropped – despite a higher than expected CPI report 2) USD (DXY) index was for most of the day 3) a few important Emerging Markets Equities started digging out of the rubble: Brazil, China, Mexico The relentless sell-off in Technology and continued outperformance of Energy was a continuation of the trend ...