How far can crude oil prices go this cycle?
Let’s start building these floors: 1. the last cycle of 2008 peaked at $150, which adjusted for inflation bringing us to $200/barrel now. 2. admittedly, because the world uses more renewables than in 2008, it would take HIGHER oil to destroy demand. I.e. the US consumer is far more protected from the oil shock than ...
What can our dogmatic Fed Chairman do now?
1. raise rates 50bps a few times in a row (ideally, every month not just every meeting)2. raise rates 75bps next meeting3. immediately reverse the madness of bonds purchases4. apologize to consumers and Congress for their inability to forecast the future5. Replace Jay Powell with Jim Bullard 6. ALL OF THE ABOVE ...
Investors are rediscovering the old truth that there is a big difference between a good company and a good stock.
One would have assumed that all Technology stocks are down YTDYet, many reasonably valued, Technology companies are bringing in positive returns YTD.Do you own any of them?Or, are you still mesmerized by the infinite promise of SnowFlake – fighting the demanding valuation of (EV/Sales 44!) and incurring operational losses? ...
Wouldn’t we agree that the Fed has irresponsibly overheated the economy:
1) keeping rates at zero for 15 months longer than needed when the unemployment rate is 3.8%?2) buying Treasuries and Mortgages (!) when the real estate market is red hot. So, what eventually happens to the grossly overheated economy? Is it supposed to land softly? Only in our wishful thinking… ...
Some misleading references in financial media suggest that the markets tend to do well, after the first Fed hike.
Well, unfortunately, that was true when the Fed was hiking early in the cycle.When the Fed is hiking SO OBVIOUSLY late into the cycle – that hurts when they should think about easing. If only the FFR was already at 3% or so… ...