Amazingly residential rents in NYC (and, in most other large cities across the US) are running above the pre-covid levels.

Notwithstanding the obvious outrage of renters, the question is:
WHY?
On, the surface, it doesn’t make any sense:
1) If the office space in NYC is only 30% occupied!
2) if the crime rate is 45% than 1-2 years ago?

Well, people suggest a litany of familiar gripes (greedy landlords, making up for the lost income in 2021-22) – none of these is economically logical.
My hypothesis is that people traded UP in size given that most of them at least partially work from home, i.e.:
1) office workers needed an EXTRA bedroom to be used as an office 
2) that increase in the apartment rent can be EXPENSED for tax reasons

Does this imply that down the road, some office space would repurpose into apartments and condos?
(like, Waldorf Astoria or Plaza Hotels were converted into condos before the pandemic)?
Comments, please?

Amazingly residential rents in NYC (and, in most other large cities across the US) are running above the pre-covid levels.

Elon Musk was never a proponent of a single business focus…

Quite the opposite, as always, he keeps breaking conventional rules of business conduct.
In addition to his list of numerous full-time leadership jobs:
Tesla
SpaceX
Boring Company
Neuralink
OpenAI
and, taking care of his 6 kids!
Any of these jobs are enough to keep any other capable person busy 24×7, he just volunteered to deal with the Twitter board!
Amazing!
Elon, since you have so much free time, I invite you to join the Board of my company – TenViz.

Elon Musk was never a proponent of a single business focus…

The politically driven decision to release 1M barrels of crude oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was viewed as a temporary bandaid applied to an arm at the expense of a bleeding leg:

1) the logistical cap on SPR draws is ~0.5M BPD, which is essentially in line with the 3-4MM bbls per week that are ALREADY being drawn from the US SPR. I.e. the SPR daily release can’t get notably larger than the current outflow
2) even if a 1MM BPD release was feasible, a release of this amount would draw the already partially drained SPR down to ~300MM bbls, leaving almost no reserve, considering the US has to store 315mm bbls to comply with the IEA’s guidelines that specify member countries hold 90 days of net import cover in reserves.
3) eventually, SPR has to be restocked (almost, certainly at the higher prices).

The politically driven decision to release 1M barrels of crude oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was viewed as a temporary bandaid applied to an arm at the expense of a bleeding leg:

We are heading into the recession not because the Fed will slam the brakes so abruptly

But, because they have so irresponsibly overstimulated the economy in 2019-2020. Rockets rarely land safely…

We are heading into the recession not because the Fed will slam the brakes so abruptly

This profoundly disturbing war in Ukraine produced many economic surprises:

Palladium spot price now trades below the Feb 24th level. While 45% of global palladium is supplied by Russia. The only reasonable (and, hopefully, ridiculous) explanation of that is that the recession would be so bad, that nobody would need cars catalytic converters…

This profoundly disturbing war in Ukraine produced many economic surprises:

Barclays taking a $0.5B charge on messing upsizing the Risk in Bonds?

I.e. since bonds have not experienced such volatility – they have not budgeted for such moves…Why did that happen? Because risk managers follow tightly parametrized playbooks based on the recent past. However, surprisingly, the future is ALWAYS different from the past (amazing, right?!)What is the solution? Adding a predictive component to Risk Management that would alert to unexpected developments?

Barclays taking a $0.5B charge on messing upsizing the Risk in Bonds?

ADBE

Beyond the human tragedy of this disturbing war in Ukraine, the direct financial casualty, are consistent with the previous trends:
Adobe (ADBE) is down 7% on cutting growth due to business cuts in Russia-Belarus
Russia-Belarus is 2-3% of the global GDP but remembers that for a recession to start 2% drop in GDP would be enough.

ADBE

The growing risk of disruptions to global agriculture from the Ukraine-Russia conflict propelled agriculture machinery stocks (like, John Deere) to new highs.

The growing risk of disruptions to global agriculture from the Ukraine-Russia conflict propelled agriculture machinery stocks (like, John Deere) to new highs.

How far can crude oil prices go this cycle?

Let’s start building these floors:

1. the last cycle of 2008 peaked at $150, which adjusted for inflation bringing us to $200/barrel now.

2. admittedly, because the world uses more renewables than in 2008, it would take HIGHER oil to destroy demand. I.e. the US consumer is far more protected from the oil shock than in 2008

3. Also, don’t forget that we entered 2008 after a few years of the commodities boom and major oil discoveries and developments – deep-sea drilling globally and US shale.

Now we inherited a decade of underinvestments into the old economy, including fossil fuels. 

So, should we be talking $300+/barrell?

Possibly…

How far can crude oil prices go this cycle?