There is only one reason to believe that the inflation has peaked:

It is a HOPE.And, nothing else. Everything else points to the structurally higher inflation:1. Regionalization (nearshoring) – started by Trump, accelerated by Covid and the war in Europe2. Declining (!) work force makes the idea of sewing shirts for c20 there a passe. 3. The decade of structural underinvestment in commodities, transportation, logistics and agriculture. All ...

The only reason for a recession is accumulated misallocation of capital.

Full stop. Not the Fed, not the inflation – these are the symptoms, not the underlying drivers of a recession. So, what 15 years of effectively Zero interest rates in the developed world and this coercive buying of long bonds did? Overinvestment in unproductive areas: Technology, Crypto, covid-beneficiaries, home food delivery services to name just ...

This is not the (stock) market to make money, this is the market not to LOSE money.

Not a good time to be a hero, fishing for an illusive bottom (with rare exceptions)…There are many reasons for the stock market to slide but the key is that the magnitude of the likely earnings erosion is very high… ...

Do you see money flowing out of Bitcoin into Value stocks?

Bitcoin is doing its predictable slides last, where are people moving their money to?Our tools see money leaving Bitcoin and going into Value stocks, including European Value. Have a look at the BTC vs. Europe Value Factor Charts:the outflows of funds from BTC into cheap European stocks (Energy, Banks, Telecoms) ...

Today’s CPI report confirms that the Fed pays lip service to the idea of quenching the inflation…

What we have right now 75bps FFR – is still very stimulative and pro-inflationary.If the Fed was genuine in its efforts to arrest the inflation, they would have raised 100bps, then 75bps, then 50bps and then 25bps….all last year ...

This news from Target and WalMart last 2 weeks about their need to shed excess inventory due to shifting buying patterns tells us that these retailers can’t forecast changes in demand!

Amazingly, both of these mega-giants employ battalions of Data Scientists and millions of Data servers.The reality of a consumer who bought an extra pair of dumbbells and large computer screens to work out and work from home in lockdowns will not buy any of these for another 5-7 years! Yet, both WalMart and Target failed ...