Shallow and short recessions are preceded by lack of any meaningful excesses without any serious overheating.
Do we have that? Hell, no!
We had serious, serious overinvestment in:
1) Technology – 13 years bull run in Tech
2) Venture Capital – propelled by the trillions in returns in IPOs
3) Cryptos – massively overbuilt, despite the long-term promise
4) Government Debt – irresponsible pile up (mostly G7)
5) Consumer Discretionary – on the back of low rates and post-covid stimulus
6) Economy was so tight that sub 4% unemployment was the lowest in 20 years…
Beyond these trillions of dollars of overinvestments – we have nothing to worry about!
No overbuilt in energy, transportation, airlines, hotels.