While US Crude Oil production is barely recovering (almost stagnating)…

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But there is nothing magic about this round 3% number.
Mechanically, the next resistance level is 3.23%
(and, hopefully, we would not get there)

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I think, he frankly doesn’t get it.
Here is why Bitcoin is valuable beyond speculation:
Nobody denies the value of the bitcoin blockchain. Agreed?
With that in mind, for any blockchain to work successfully, every transaction should have a small monetary reward, paid in the native currency – i.e. bitcoin.
I.e. bitcoin system records participants have to reward intermediaries for propagating these reliable records throughout the network.
Obviously, how much bitcoin is worth is subject to speculation…
And, yes, bitcoin does face competition from a long list of other blockchains.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/30/warren-buffett-gives-his-most-expansive-explanation-for-why-he-doesnt-believe-in-bitcoin.html?__source=androidappshare

Ø Amazon now promises 7% top-line growth, seriously? on a 40x P/E
Ø What is Amazon: a modern-day, Internet-enabled catalog delivery! – like Sears was 130 years ago.
·   Sears opened mail ordering catalog deliveries in 1892
·   Before the Sears catalog, farmers near small rural towns usually purchased supplies, often at high prices and on credit, from local general stores with narrow selections of goods. Prices were negotiated and relied on the storekeeper’s estimate of a customer’s creditworthiness. Sears built an opposite business model by offering in their catalogs a larger selection of products at published prices.
·   Sears revolutionized that process by using railroad deliveries across the US.

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Ø That miss was both predictable and notable:
·   How many sell-side analysts cover Amazon? 100? 
·   How many analysts cover Amazon on the buy-side? 40,000? and they all missed that slowdown!
·   So, what happens to a catalog company like Amazon when its growth moderates to 7% and inflation of 9% hits its labor-intensive delivery process? Margins shrink!

As always, being right on major allocations: Sectors, Styles or Countries would dictate 80-90% of returns. Especially this year! Don’t forget that 95% of Tech stocks (and many of them are Quality!) are down YTD, and 90% of Energy stocks are up YTD (and, many of them are struggling companies). Also, in reality, the notion of buying Quality stocks is another white lie: the quality factor drifts, therefore this blue-skies promise to buy quality stocks sounds like: “trust me with your money because I will buy only quality companies for you!”   I.e. don’t forget that there is a difference between a great company and a great stock…

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Everyone would be glued to the new screens this evening, hoping that Apple or Amazon will tell us about the future of the world!

Seriously, do you think that these CEOs have any idea about:

• when would inflation or oil peak?
• when would China end its excessive Covid lockdowns?
• or when this war in Ukraine would end?
• do they even know if another big (Twitter-like) buyout would be announced?

Yet, these major events define major sectors and countries allocations…

So, don’t overthink this week’s earnings – the only constant changes!

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crucially important for the global food security from our contacts on the ground there:

• amazingly, Ukrainian farmers would still be able to plant ~68% of pre-war fields (wheat, corn, sunflower)
• For the planting season of 2022, access to about 30% of the field areas is not available due to combat.

Bottlenecks:

1. Logistics: historically, most of the crops were shipped via the Black Sear seaports, which are currently tightly blocked by the Russian Navy. Therefore, exports will be carried out by rail through western borders.  Rail is far more expensive and presents tons of bottlenecks. effectively reducing export capacity throughput by 10-15%
2. Interestingly and encouragingly, no fuel shortages: i.e. diesel for tractors and trucks is abundant.
3. Shortage of labor is acute: 12 million of ppl are displaced and workers volunteered for the armed forces or moved to other regions.

BTW I hope that everyone knows that the Ukrainian flag (blue over yellow) effectively associates with the blue skies over the fields of wheat.

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Very much like Peloton has pulled demand forward, during the Covid lockdowns, and then that stay-at-home excess profits have attracted all kinds of competitors. Now Peloton faces declining demand AND higher competition. Netflix is suffering from the exact same effect.

BTW our Tools told clients to avoid/short NFLX since its stock was $500.

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Yes, they are over-earning, over-valued, over-owned, over-liked, etc.
Yet, all long-term investors know that the leaders of the previous cycle never lead the new cycle.
The technology worked 2010-2021, and, that party is over…

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Simplistically speaking, banks take deposits at low rates, and, issue loans. The issue is that for the last decade most banks were paying 25 bps on deposits, as there were no alternatives. When the short-term treasuries would offer 2-3-4%, who would bypass that for the checking account, paying close to nothing. I.e. banks would be forced to raise the deposit rate VERY soon.

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