crucially important for the global food security from our contacts on the ground there:
- amazingly, Ukrainian farmers would still be able to plant ~68% of pre-war fields (wheat, corn, sunflower)
- For the planting season of 2022, access to about 30% of the field areas is not available due to combat.
- Logistics: historically, most of the crops were shipped via the Black Sear seaports, which are currently tightly blocked by the Russian Navy. Therefore, exports will be carried out by rail through western borders. Rail is far more expensive and presents tons of bottlenecks. effectively reducing export capacity throughput by 10-15%
- Interestingly and encouragingly, no fuel shortages: i.e. diesel for tractors and trucks is abundant.
- Shortage of labor is acute: 12 million of ppl are displaced and workers volunteered for the armed forces or moved to other regions.
BTW I hope that everyone knows that the Ukrainian flag (blue over yellow) effectively associates with the blue skies over the fields of wheat.