No two recessions are alike but us being humans, we would inevitably look back in history to find the closest analogies. Continue reading “The Upcoming Recession of 2016-2017 Smells 2001 Not 2008, Except…”
Author: Konstantin Fominykh
Negative Rates in the US More Likely to Be Implicit and Not Explicit (Unlike Europe)
We’ve published an article last week on the economic rationale why the BoJ (the #Bank of Japan) resorted to negative rates. If you accept a chance of my pragmatic angle, the idea is simple: when you have the power to issue debt at negative rates, you got both the money to spend and interest paid to you. Unbelievably, sweet! Continue reading “Negative Rates in the US More Likely to Be Implicit and Not Explicit (Unlike Europe)”
The Real (Cynical) Reason Why Japan Made Interest Rates Negative
Financial commentators are all fired up over-debating why the BOJ (Bank of Japan) decided to bring the benchmark rates into the negative territory. They seem surprised, and clearly animated. But should they be? Continue reading “The Real (Cynical) Reason Why Japan Made Interest Rates Negative”
Framework to China GDP: It Can’t Outgrow 5%
We suggest a very intuitive approach to quantify the GDP growth for #China using the Supply side economics framework. Continue reading “Framework to China GDP: It Can’t Outgrow 5%”
Why Markets Will Stabilize This Week
No matter how convinced we are about the upcoming global recession, a strong bounce in capital markets in almost all markets is coming. I hereby declare that we will have a notable bounce in Equities this week (Jan 12th). I am talking about a tactical bounce. Continue reading “Why Markets Will Stabilize This Week”
Why Every 1% Drop in China’s GDP Hurts so Badly
While economists and financial journalists debate largely irrelevant decimals of a China missing or hitting GDP growth target by 0.1% let’s illustrate why the downshift to a more sustainable growth would be so painful. Continue reading “Why Every 1% Drop in China’s GDP Hurts so Badly”
Filter 2016 Forecasts Through Author’s Track Record
We already see hundreds of real and made-up experts broadcasting their views on 2016: “Best Ideas for 2016”, “Top 10 Investments for the next year”, etc.
Continue reading “Filter 2016 Forecasts Through Author’s Track Record”
Cheap Oil Hurts More Than Rates Hike
Let’s laugh the crap out of economists for feeding us the misinformation for years that the low price of oil would be great for the US economy!
As Routine Ruins Marriage, Obsessive Focus on the FED Kills Independent Thinking in Investing
December 16th, the “lift-off” by the FED, hear the drumbeat…But why do we really focus on the FED that much?
Refuting Two Myths about the One-Child Policy in China
This is a Part 4 of a series of articles on: Why the Upcoming Crisis in China would be very painful. Read our previous post here please.
Like everywhere else the economic growth rate in China is highly dependent on the growth of its labor force. Therefore, here I will refute two simplistic myths about the impact one-child policy makes in China.
Continue reading “Refuting Two Myths about the One-Child Policy in China”