Should You Sell Your House Now?
I get asked a lot by friends: Should I sell my house? ...
Why in Investing There are Old Traders and There Are Bold Traders, But There Are Very Few Old, Bold Traders
We all have been there, the stock is down 30% last few months and it is down 4% on another piece of bad news today. Tempting to buy it? My strong suggestion is that you should not. While it seems intellectually elegant to buy dips, in general, odds are heavily stacked against you. ...
Global Financial Markets Entering Risk-Off Regime
Our global Macro Monitor system is flashing many Red Flags (and we emailed first warnings a few days ago to our clients). ...
Why Yield Curves Excel at Seeing the Future and Central Banks Don’t
Why is the shape of a Yield Curve a solid predictor of a recession (or a recovery)? I actually have never heard a coherent explanation why a flat or inverted Yield Curves signal recession so well. Typically 99% of answers to that question would center around what a Central Bank of a country would do and what investors think ...
The Upcoming Recession of 2016-2017 Smells 2001 Not 2008, Except…
No two recessions are alike but us being humans, we would inevitably look back in history to find the closest analogies. ...
Negative Rates in the US More Likely to Be Implicit and Not Explicit (Unlike Europe)
We’ve published an article last week on the economic rationale why the BoJ (the #Bank of Japan) resorted to negative rates. If you accept a chance of my pragmatic angle, the idea is simple: when you have the power to issue debt at negative rates, you got both the money to spend and interest paid to you. Unbelievably, sweet! ...