Tenviz

It is totally cool for the Fed Chairman Powell still not “think about thinking” about raising rates… Nero is taking out his fiddle… But, the market would not only knock on the Fed’s door, it would knock down the door and the walls off when the inflation would be surging… ...

When we hear about companies “beating” earnings expectations, pls keep in mind that these expectations do NOT represent true market expectations.    These are intentionally low-balled numbers from the Sell-Side analysts which were trained for decades to accommodate their covered companies with easy target. This hypocritical game of Wall Street flattery still goes on. And, ...

This is VERY important:  Janet Yellen saying that rates may have to rise somewhat to keep economy from overheating Inbox. Again, that means that both the FED and the Treasury are actively thinking about normalizing rates. Or, at least the market is forcing them to do that. Again, this is a BIG DEAL ...

Technology stocks dynamics starts deviating from the moves in Interest Rates. Yes, Technology stocks being long duration proxies benefit when rates decline (long MaCaulay duration). Last 2 months, Tech stocks started breaking away from that pattern, essentially that their fundamentals are peaking (yes, very tough sales comparisons in Q2:2021)   ...

The reopening trade reads very loudly from  the earnings commentary, and it is loudly screaming INFLATION: – heavy demand for metal commodities – surging demand for shipping (cargo rates, containers, etc.) – double-digit sales growth for residential commodities – pains, lumber, appliances – surging demand for grains and other soft commodities ...

What makes this cycle distinctly different from other cycles is that we are starting off with such a high valuation across most industries and sectors… Would be hard to observe the tug of war on valuation on the cyclical recovery plays  vs. how much the circular growther (Big Tech) which arguably had in 2021 the ...