Tenviz

At the market regime changes abruptly, Risk Managers should be ready for a rude awakening. Risk management is inherently backward-looking. When regimes change all risk inputs (betas, gamma, correlations) flip dramatically. For example, a stock beta is an inherently lagging indicator: – when a stock is underperforming its beta could be 1.2-1.8 easily, and when ...

Netflix is down 20% on the aftermarket on missing subscriber growth.That puzzles ppl, saying: “last time NFLX was down 20+% was a decade ago…”Well, that is exactly the point, we are experiencing a regime transition: from the go-go momentum of 2010-2021 towards the value cycle of 2001-2009 when most Technology stocks were brought down to ...

Many investors claim that in 2022, stock picking would be key.We strongly disagree for two reasons!First, it is a feel-good excuse to give false hope that you can through a minefield unhurt.Second, this year of 2022 is already shaping as a year of profound turns in Macro flows: inflation, rates, commodities, and global cross-border flows would ...

The Fed needs a 75bps rate hike, followed by a 50 bps hike to have any fighting chance of arresting the inflation. With the currently planned sheepish 25 bps hikes it would take years to restore the normalcy.  ...

We are at the intriguing pivotal junction for two key market indicators: technical levels for 10YUS Treasuries yields and Brent Oil10YUS Treasuries are “trying” to break through the 1.8% ceiling – going back to the January of 2020While Brent Crude Oil needs to pierce this ~$86.4 (triple top!) to overtake the previous high of October ...

I never understood investors enthusiasm about banks in this cycle:With real rates destined to be negative for at least several years, and alarming creeping wages,how can banks possibly provide compelling returns?Again, their product – loans will never be priced to reflect the real economic cost of money, while their workers would expect 7-15% salary rises.Look at the ...