The Facebook disaster today is a painful reminder that the key risk in Technology is not overvaluation, but technological obsolescence. As the usage of Facebook drops, people migrate elsewhere – direct or indirect competitors. Maybe more time on watching the finally reopened sports games or just traveling?! Or, maybe, Facebook is over The only constant ...
Market in a bubble
Remember when about 110 years ago: when John Pierpont Morgan famously concluded that the market was in a bubble, and, was destined to go down when his shoeshine was talking to him about stocks? In 2021 Bitcoin and other cryptos had the exact same signs of exuberant excess throughout 2021:So many folks talked to me ...
Investors love to make up stories for reasons why everyone should own cryptocurrencies.
Look at these made-up theories: First, ppl say that Bitcoin is the best addition to the portfolio because of the low correlation to Equities. Wrong! Bitcoin has a much higher correlation to Equities than Commodities Or, ppl talk that Bitcoin is an inflation hedge (i.e. it should go up really fast when Inflation is rising) ...
Global Equities
As US-focused investors start to lick their wounds, let’s make it clear: the current sell-off in the US is not only driven by the fear of Fed Tightening. It also reflects the inevitable global reopening as epidemiologists see the end of Covid. One of the manifestations of that is that long-forgotten Emerging Markets are benefitting ...
Upcoming reversal
Yesterday, there were a few things pointing to the upcoming reversal:1) Bitcoin was up by 1 pm;2) 30YUS yields widened by 3 pm;3) Sectors reversed.4) S&P500 had this gap down that statistically needed to be closedDoes this beg the question do gaps always close in stocks?When a stock price gap is observed, by a chance of 91.4% ...
Energy stocks
Many fundamental investors frustrated with the Energy stocks running are finally giving up and start pondering:What is the best Energy company to buy?No, no, no! You don’t buy the best company going into the massive earnings revision driven from oil going from the negative -$20 in May of 2020 to almost $90.You buy a handful ...