Gold, as we know, fulfils at least 2 functions:
1) being a safety inlet;
2) being an inflation hedge;
Now, as we can see, Gold is losing the “safety” money towards the “recovery theme” – represented by Global Value

Let’s look at the setup of OPEC to undo this heresy:
1. out of the top 5 largest oil producers, only one is an OPEC member – S.Arabia. The rest: US and Russia, Canada and China are not members.
2. the rest is mostly made up by Emerging Markets who have their own agendas, fiscal budget shortfalls, and shaky governments desperate to fill in the coffers and pump oil…
The oil ministers from OPEC countries take these irrelevant OPEC meetings as a puffed up boondoggle to play up their own importance.

Money keeps flowing into Energy globally – see how TenViz tools spot flows into European Energy Equities.

Financials, Real Estate or Energy? Hmmm..

Financials – heavy dependency on rates, and RE.
Real Estate – when and to what extent would ppl come back to working in an office, and store-shopping.
Energy – depends on ppl driving/flying, yet, the oversupply imbalances are reduced daily
Thoughts, my friends?

We hear often how ppl want to invest into circular growth stocks.
Well, we beg to differ!
Let’s take a counterexample of AMZN – one of the best stocks of all times.
From 2000 till 2007 AMZN Revenue grew 7x (truly amazing while its stock was in 2007 below then in 2000 (see the chart below)
Yes, the Amazing Amazon stock wasn’t working for 8 years, despite delivering unbelievably strong growth year in and year out…

GM was drinking the koolaid when they crafted the initial investment into Nikola.
Nikola had no product, no sales, no manufacturing…

Without going into all details, let’s admit the harsh truth: it is an embarrassment for GM to punt such a speculative deal.
This deal is worse than when GE was overpaying BakerHughes at the peak of the Shale Oil bubble.

Wait a minute, why are Energy stocks up 25% last 2 weeks?
Wasn’t Biden’s win supposed to be bad for Energy stocks?
Wasn’t the deteriorating Covid spread and broadening lockdowns kill the recovery?
Wasn’t the Energy space bankrupt yet?
Nope, everything has a price.
RobinHood traders are selling TSLA to buy CPE and QEP!
Who-hah…

The recurring nature of fat tail events in markets can’t be avoided.
See how VIX chart displays this remarkably consistent tendency to scratch 35-40 every other 2-3 years, and once in a decade or so, to rip up to 80+
Just the nature of the beast….

With another Covid vaccine of 95% efficacy (the one from Pfizer was “only 90%), do you still want to buy Stay-at-Home stocks?
Again, Stay-at-Home (i.e. “life-is-over”) stocks Pelotons and Zooms are all playing to the overpriced expectations that Humanity would not find a smart way out of this paralysis.
No way! Life has a way of fighting back!

A necessary condition for Financials stocks to work is to have higher interest rates, i.e. banks business model benefits from higher interest rates. The other side of the that effect when interest rates are heading higher, US treasuries (Bonds) sell off, and that money does flow into Financial Stocks.
That is exactly what is happening now, as TenViz Tools picked that money flows into Financials (XLF) were directly related by the outflow from US Treasuries.