Deliberately showcasing the contrarian stance, we think that the recession in the US would be just as bad, if not worse than in Europe, because:
1. The US has benefited from this insane, unreasonable fiscal and monetary stimulus. Now, we are facing massive payback on that demand pull-forward.
2. The superstrong US Dollar makes European exports more competitive vs. the American services not just in the trans-Atlantic trade but globally.
– Just think where Americans would want to travel this summer: again to Mt. Rushmore or Italian Tuscany?
– To that point, see how trading surpluses are ALREADY improving for many European countries
3. The US still has a structural and unsustainable budget and trade deficits that it has to address at some point
4. on the Commodities side – again it is mostly a wash: commodity pricing is so interconnected (with few hard-to ship categories like Natural Gas), so moves in Commodities globally would be very similar
5. The US has benefitted from this Technology boom (from Venture Capital down to hiring), and now that is colling down fast, really fast.
6. Europe (broadly speaking) was stricter and later with the post-Covid reopening, so it would get that reopening jolt now
7. And, last but not least: Europe is just so strikingly beautiful!
