Ø Amazon now promises 7% top-line growth, seriously? on a 40x P/E
Ø What is Amazon: a modern-day, Internet-enabled catalog delivery! – like Sears was 130 years ago.
· Sears opened mail ordering catalog deliveries in 1892
· Before the Sears catalog, farmers near small rural towns usually purchased supplies, often at high prices and on credit, from local general stores with narrow selections of goods. Prices were negotiated and relied on the storekeeper’s estimate of a customer’s creditworthiness. Sears built an opposite business model by offering in their catalogs a larger selection of products at published prices.
· Sears revolutionized that process by using railroad deliveries across the US.
Ø That miss was both predictable and notable:
· How many sell-side analysts cover Amazon? 100?
· How many analysts cover Amazon on the buy-side? 40,000? and they all missed that slowdown!
· So, what happens to a catalog company like Amazon when its growth moderates to 7% and inflation of 9% hits its labor-intensive delivery process? Margins shrink!