Is 2Y the Most Telling Chart for Fed and Macro?

2Y US vs FED

Have a look at the 2Y US Treasuries Yield

(see the chart below – Yield is plotted inversely – higher Yield, meaning bonds are lower)

  • 2Y US Treasuries act as an excellent predictor for Fed moves and, therefore a good canary in the mine for global markets.
  • the fact that Yield of US 2Y Treasuries peaked around November 8, tells you that that the Market has concluded that the Fed is pretty much done (notwithstanding the expected hike today).┬áMaybe, a single hike left next year
  • not coincidentally, TenViz Tools produced an excellent Buy Signals on 2Y US Treasuries, very close to that widest point (see our Buy signal on Oct 2, 2018 – Green callout).

2y us

Is 2Y the Most Telling Chart for Fed and Macro?

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