On the fallacy of investor surveys…
I know we all want to know what other competitors think, and feeding that crave, many researches run endless surveys – what the market, rates, commodities, stocks will do at some point. But, let’s review this logical trap: 1. no survey will cover all market players 2. even the most open survey participants might unintentionally ...
Strategists associate the fall of Tesla with their distraction with Bitcoin…
Sure, these are topical, sexy subjects. But in reality, TSLA is just a super expensive stock which is supposed to go down when interest rates jump. Don’t overthink it…. ...
If humanity would be thinking of designing a new currency
If humanity would be thinking of designing a new currency, the following attributes would be certainly put on the table: this new currency should be scarce (finite in quantity) this new currency should be hard to make this currency would be digital this currency would encounter natural resistance from governments and established institutions, naturally fearing ...
When rates rise
When rates rise, High-Growth/High Multiple stocks go down, it is a statistical inevitability… Again, this is not an opinion – it is a hard core financial math…. When r in this formula goes up, stocks with a long growth forecast suffer… ...
Energy vs. Big Tech
The power of pro-cyclical rotation is most visible in Energy vs. Big Tech trade. TenViz tools continue to believe that the upside in Energy is extraordinary attractive, especially in small-cap value Energy names. ...
How high can crude Oil go?
Given how tight supply is, and how much other commodities ripped, it is totally possible for Crude Oil to rip above $110 in 12 months on a cyclical upswing. Benchmark vs. other soft commodities making multi-year highs. ...