During periods of low returns, eking out small advantages is critical. Agreed?
The idea of market timing stems from the notion that market is a closed system. Before an asset starts descending, something else has to be sold. The best analogy: facing the sequence of traffic on a Light Stop. Imagine your driving a car and you stop at a Red light. Before the light that you face turns Green, the light on the crossing street must turn Red (for them!). Then the road cross would be clear for you to drive ahead and, then your light turns Green, and then you can drive ahead.
Same in investing:
- before more people will buy stocks, they would need to sell some bonds
- before they sell stable companies (for example, IBM) they would sell their Emerging Markets holding
And so forth… Money just flows from one pot into another. It is hard to follow – essentially, one has to track all the Assets Classes globally: Stocks, Commodities, Bonds/Credit, FX, Real Estate, Money Markets and, probably, something else that I am not aware of (Silver ores on Mars? Elon Mask can you help there?)
Very few investors are equipped to do that and they wouldn’t share that with you.
We developed a set of complex tools that allow investors to time their market entries better by watching Cross-Assets behavior globally.